2020 |    Forecast

Verification Overview
  Weekly Skill Summary
  Predictable Days (ACC based)

Scores for Each of Metrics
                Deterministic       Tercile Probabilistic     
    T2M    |  ACC  MSSS  ROCS  HSS  LEPS  CRPSS
    PREC  |  ACC  MSSS  ROCS  HSS  LEPS  CRPSS
    Z500   |  ACC  MSSS  ROCS  HSS  LEPS  CRPSS

Relative Performance of KMA
  Rank-based Verification Metrics Merging (RVMM)
    KMA                  |  T2M  PREC  Z500
    Top Performer |  T2M  PREC  Z500
  Against 8 Other Agencies
    T2M    |  ACC  MSSS  ROCS  HSS  LEPS  CRPSS
    PREC  |  ACC  MSSS  ROCS  HSS  LEPS  CRPSS
    Z500   |  ACC  MSSS  ROCS  HSS  LEPS  CRPSS
  Against Past Years
    T2M  PREC  Z500

Initial Predictability Source
  Summary of Relative Contribution of Climate Regimes
    T2M    |  AYR  DJF  MAM  JJA  SON
    PREC  |  AYR  DJF  MAM  JJA  SON
    Z500   |  AYR  DJF  MAM  JJA  SON
  Skill (ACC) Reliance on Initial Status of Climate Regimes
    T2M    |  MJO  Nino3.4  DMI  AEM  ART1  ART2
                   AO  NAO  WNPSH  EAWM  SH  PV  QBO
    PREC  |  MJO  Nino3.4  DMI  AEM  ART1  ART2
                   AO  NAO  WNPSH  EAWM  SH  PV  QBO
    Z500   |  MJO  Nino3.4  DMI  AEM  ART1  ART2
                   AO  NAO  WNPSH  EAWM  SH  PV  QBO

Last updated Apr 2022, (contact: dolkong400 at gmail)

* Terciles, anomalies and climate indices here are derived based on the reference period (2000-2010).
* Six verification metrics (MSSS, ACC, HSS, LEPS, ROC, CRPSS) are applied.
* Below figure and tables are DATA RESOURCES (models & observations), DOMAINS, OPERATIONAL CALENDAR/WEEKLY PERIODS applied.

DATA RESOURCES

● Variables: 2m temperature(T2M), Precipitation(PREC), Height at 500hPa(Z500)
● Observations
- ERA5 [https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/search?text=ERA5%20back%20extension&type=dataset]
- GPCP [https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/global-precipitation-climatology-project-gpcp-daily/access/]

The S2S data [http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/s2s/]
* We are grateful to KMA, ECCC, ECMWF, NCEP, and UKMO as well as the S2S Prediction Project for their data and resources.

The SubX data [http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.SubX/]
* We acknowledge the agencies that support the SubX system, and we thank the climate modeling groups (Environment Canada, NASA, NOAA/NCEP, NRL and University of Miami) for producing and making available their model output. NOAA/MAPP, ONR, NASA, NOAA/NWS jointly provided coordinating support and led development of the SubX system.

DOMAINS

OPERATIONAL CALENDAR

WEEKLY PERIODS